How Many More Majors Will Rory Win?

The celebration is still happening.

Rory McIlroy won the Masters, finally claiming his elusive green jacket. He is the sixth man to ever complete the career Grand Slam, giving him a case to be among the 10 greatest golfers to ever live.

But now our attention is turning to the future. With McIlroy no longer carrying the burden of a lengthy major drought, maybe there are more big-time victories in his immediate future.

This year offers great opportunities to add to his five major titles (tied with Brooks Koepka for the most among this generation of players).

The upcoming PGA Championship is at Quail Hollow, a course McIlroy has dominated. He’s won there four times, including last year. The Open Championship is at Royal Portrush, not far from where McIlroy grew up playing the game in Northern Ireland. And it almost doesn’t matter where the U.S. Open is because McIlroy has six consecutive top-10 finishes in that event.

With that being the case, I was wondering what his odds are to win another major in 2025.

And, taking it a step further, I am wondering how many majors McIlroy will win by the time he retires.

Let’s take a look at what the numbers tell us.

McIlroy’s chances the rest of 2025

Perhaps shedding the burden of his major drought will lead McIlroy to even greater heights.

The oddsmakers believe in him. McIlroy is now listed at +500 to win the PGA Championship in a few weeks. He’s also +500 for the Open Championship. His worst odds are at the U.S. Open where he is +600.

A big reason for that is his outstanding form. McIlroy is a clear No. 2 in the Data Golf rankings, sitting well clear of No. 3 Jon Rahm. While No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is still miles ahead of everyone, he has yet to win this year after getting off to a slow start. Xander Schauffele, No. 9 in Data Golf but No. 3 in the Official World Golf Ranking, is also finding his way back after an injury slowed his progress.

While other stars have slumbered, McIlroy has won at Pebble Beach, TPC Sawgrass and Augusta National. Not a bad trio.

According to AI models used by ChatGPT, McIlroy’s probability of winning each major the rest of 2025 is around 8-12 percent. For instance, he has about an 11.76-percent chance of winning the PGA Championship.

In total, he has about a 31-percent chance of winning at least one of the last three majors remaining in 2025. That is incredibly high given how hard it is to win a major. He did, after all, go more than a decade without a major win.

What is his probability to win all three remaining majors to capture a calendar Grand Slam?

Only about 1.3 percent so I wouldn’t bet on it.

Regardless, the analytics like McIlroy a lot.

How about the rest of McIlroy’s career?

By analyzing the data, we can make some predictions for how many majors McIlroy will finish with.

McIlroy is just about to turn 36 years old. He has publicly stated he won’t be competing at the age of 50—his exact words were “something has gone terribly wrong” if he’s still doing that—so let’s assume he stops being competitive around the age of 45. He’s in great physical shape and could easily make it that long if the desire is still there.

There is some guessing here but let’s say he plays in 40 more majors and remains competitive throughout that time.

We know McIlroy has played in 64 majors thus far with a win percentage of 7.8 percent.

If that pace were to continue, McIlroy would bag three more major titles.

Now, there are complications here. One is that McIlroy is arguably in a better position to capture more majors in 2025 (and perhaps the next couple of seasons beyond that) as his 31-percent probability suggests. But another is that McIlroy won four majors from 2011-2014, which was a completely different era, so that overall major win percentage is not necessarily indicative of what he will do in the future.

McIlroy also relies heavily on speed and pure ball striking, which could wane later in this time period.

I think it’s fair that some of those variables cancel each other out, leaving us with the reasonable prediction that McIlroy will win three more major titles.

That means he would finish with eight majors, tying him with Tom Watson for sixth all-time. Notably, he would be ahead of Sam Snead and Arnold Palmer.

There are two active players best positioned to challenge Rory

While all this talk is about McIlroy, his predicted eight major championships might not even be the most among players in the 28-38 age category.

Brooks Koepka is almost exactly one year younger than McIlroy. He has the same number of major wins but has done so in 21 fewer starts. His win rate is a startling 11.6 percent.

If Koepka played another decade at that pace—which would be very ambitious, but still …—he would finish his career at nine major titles, one ahead of McIlroy’s predicted total.

And then there is Scheffler, who will turn just 29 this June. That leaves him with the possibility of 15 more competitive years of golf.

Scheffler only has two major wins but he has done so in just 22 starts. That is a 9.1-percent win rate.

On that pace, Scheffler would be challenging the pace of six additional major titles, tying McIlroy’s predicted total.

We, of course, know that winning majors later in a player’s career is much harder and a player like Koepka has struggled with injury.

The safest money is that none of the players reaches these predicted totals. However, if I had to pick one, I think McIlroy does get three more major titles and finishes with the most majors of this threesome.

Koepka is a candidate for early-ish retirement and Scheffler still needs another three majors just to tie.

How many majors will Rory win in his career? Who will have the most among these three players?

Let me know below in the comments.

Top Photo Caption: Rory McIlroy’s Masters victory renewed discussion of how many majors he will finish his career with. (GETTY IMAGES/Simon Bruty)

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